2025 Container Shipping Outlook: Navigating the crosscurrents

Well, that was unexpected. With some 3 million 20-foot-equivalent units (TEU) in new capacity poised to come online in 2024, after 3 years of controlled capital spending, carriers went into the year anticipating a reversion to the chronic overcapacity that has long weighed on the industry’s profitability.

But market fundamentals changed drastically in November 2023, when Houthi rebels in Yemen launched a campaign of attacks on Red Sea shipping. Virtually overnight, 7-8% of global capacity was diverted as Red Sea cargoes were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. The move added two weeks to transit times along the Far East-Europe lane and resulted in a 40% increase in emissions. Schedule reliability, which had made a heartening recovery in the latter half of 2023, reverted to around 50%.

The detour also drained the market of excess capacity, and tight supply drove rates upward with the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) rising up to 150% from the start of the crisis to July 2024; port congestion reduced available capacity by an additional 2%. 

Thanks to the rate rises, carriers that went into 2024 expecting to post annual losses ended the year strongly profitable. Maersk, for example, issued guidance in February 2024 that it expected annual losses of as much as $5 billion; by October 2024 it had alerted investors to expect EBIT of as much as $5.7 billion.  The final tally, reported In February 2025, was $6.5 billion in EBIT. Hapag-Lloyd, which in March 2024 warned of losses of as much as $1.1 billion, posted $2.8 billion in EBIT.

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