AlixPartners Global Automotive Outlook reveals new data sharing the extent to which the UK is set to miss its zero emission vehicle deadlines by in 2030 and 2035

• UK battery electric vehicles only predicted to represent 44% of new vehicle sales by 2030 and 78% by 2035;
• 24% of UK light vehicle sales are still expected to be internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 2030, with ICE vehicles still predicted to represent 10% of light vehicle sales by 2035.

LONDON (3 July 2024) – AlixPartners, the global consulting firm, today published new research from its 21st annual Global Automotive Outlook, revealing that the extent to which the UK is set to miss its zero emission vehicle (ZEV) targets by for 2030 and 2035.

According to the research, only 44% of new UK light vehicle sales are expected to be zero emission battery electric vehicles (BEVs) by 2030 and only 78% are predicted to be BEVs by 2035. 24% of UK light vehicle sales are still expected to be internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles in 2030, with ICE vehicles still predicted to represent 10% of light vehicle sales by 2035.

The UK Government’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate requires 80% of new cars and 70% of new vans sold in the UK to be zero emission by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2035. The 2035 end-of-sale date puts the UK in line with other major global economies, including France and Germany. Labour, however, recently pledged that it will be banning the sale of petrol and diesel by 2030 if it wins the General Election.

Commenting on these findings, Nick Parker, a senior partner in the Automotive & Industrial Practice at AlixPartners, commented:

“Battery electric vehicles face major hurdles within the U.K. market, with cost, charging infrastructure, charging time, and battery life preventing many from making the leap to net zero.

“Automakers and suppliers can and should prioritise making efficiencies to tackle battery electric vehicle costs. Our research reveals that there is a significant amount of cash trapped across UK supply chains, with large suppliers having added ‘just-in-case’ inventory prior to the Pandemic, which if repurposed, could support the transition to battery electric vehicles. 

“Some issues, however, cannot be resolved by car manufacturers alone. The General Election provides our country’s leaders with a clear opportunity to boost efforts to close the Zero Emission gap. But, while there has been much talk of investment into charging infrastructure, the next Government would be better advised to focus its efforts on making net zero vehicles affordable through vehicle subsidies.”

The UK is not alone in its struggles to meet its Green automotive targets. The Global Automotive Outlook predicts that France, Germany and Italy will miss their 2035 ZEV targets, with only 79% of new light vehicle sales expected to be BEVs by 2035 in both France and Germany. Only 72% of new light vehicle sales are expected to be BEVs by 2035 in Italy.

The research adds that Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) are still expected to have a significant presence across major Continental European countries in 2030 and 2035, with HEV market share even expected to reach 36% in Italy by 2030. In the UK market specifically, 27% of light vehicle sales are still expected to be HEVs in 2030 and 5% are predicted to be Plug-In Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), with these numbers decreasing to 10% and 3% respectively by 2035. 

Commenting on this trend, Andrew Bergbaum, Co-Head of the Automotive & Industrial Practice at AlixPartners, said:

“Something to keep an eye on is whether lukewarm consumer appetite for fully electric models begins to steer the industry further towards plugin hybrid models with e-fuel as we edge closer to the 2035 zero-emission deadline.”

 About AlixPartners

AlixPartners is a results-driven global consulting firm that specializes in helping businesses successfully address their most complex and critical challenges. Our clients include companies, corporate boards, law firms, investment banks, private equity firms, and others. Founded in 1981, AlixPartners is headquartered in New York, and has offices in more than 20 cities around the world. For more information, visit www.alixpartners.com.

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