AlixPartners publishes 2024 UK Christmas Grocery Forecast, predicting a muted year for in-store festive food sales

• The forecast also highlights a window of opportunity for grocers, created by the recent increase in the National Living Wage

LONDON (18 November 2024) – Global consulting firm, AlixPartners, released its UK Christmas Grocery Forecast today, predicting that in-store Christmas food sales will see muted year-on-year growth in 2024. In-store sales over the festive period are expected to show a 2.5% year-on-year increase in value. When adjusted to allow for inflation, however, this statistic becomes a 0.7% decrease. 

This forecast, which is based on AlixPartners’ analysis of UK ONS retail sales and consumer confidence data, mirrors findings from the AlixPartners 2025 Global Consumer Outlook, which recently surveyed 2,000 UK consumers on their intended spending for this holiday period. The outlook reveals that only 13% of British consumers are planning to spend more on food this Christmas than last Christmas. 55% intend to spend the same amount as last year, while 21% of British consumers intend to spend less.

Commenting on these findings, Matt Clark, Head of EMEA Retail at AlixPartners, said: 

“With the legacy of inflation continuing to bite and consumer confidence holding back spending, this Christmas is set to be a subdued affair for grocers. Last month’s Budget brought difficult news, with many preparing to take a significant financial hit as a result of the National Living Wage and National Insurance Contribution increases. A good ‘Golden Quarter’ has therefore become more important than ever.

“There is some hope on the horizon for the industry. The increase in the National Living Wage should create a small window of optimism for lower-paid customers, during which those consumers will feel more able to spend. This is an opportunity that grocers should grab, as it is unlikely to last given likely price increases as costs are passed on. Those businesses that can move fast and decisively may yet be able to retain or grow their share of wallet over the festive period. 

“The increased pressures on profits means it is unlikely that we will see a reduction in turnaround or transformation activity as we move into next year. In this vein, agility remains vital, with all businesses needing to be prepared to make tough decisions and to adapt and innovate at pace in the weeks and months ahead.”

Notes to Editors

About the AlixPartners UK Retail Christmas Sales Forecast
The 2024 AlixPartners UK Retail Christmas Sales Forecast is based on proprietary AlixPartners analysis of ONS retail and consumer confidence data. The period it encompasses is October 1 through December 31 for each year cited. The forecast covers core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles, fuel, and restaurants and drinking establishments. The findings have been adjusted to take inflation into account.

About Spending, Disrupted: AlixPartners 2025 Global Consumer Outlook
This AlixPartners outlook is based on a survey that was conducted in September 2024 and polled 15,000 consumers from key markets across the United States and EMEA. 2,000 consumers, aged 18 and above, were polled in the UK. The outlook’s demographics were balanced across the participating countries by gender, age, and income. 

About AlixPartners
AlixPartners is a results-driven global consulting firm that specializes in helping businesses successfully address their most complex and critical challenges. Our clients include companies, corporate boards, law firms, investment banks, private equity firms, and others. Founded in 1981, AlixPartners is headquartered in New York, and has offices in more than 20 cities around the world. For more information, visit www.alixpartners.com.

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